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Global central banks on interest rates ushered in the end of 2018, weeks or enter full-contraction cycle

Global central banks on interest rates ushered in by the end of 2018, weeks or entered quantitative easing, the Fed tightening cycle tenth anniversary, the world is entering an overall tightening cycle, and this week's "Super week's interest-rate" monetary policy for 2018 bring guidelines。  Local time at 2:00 on December 13 afternoon, the resolution of the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates the central bank will open a window on the world for up to 18 hours, of which the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, the Bank of England Bank of the three most remarkable; in addition, this week, there are ten central banks, including the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian central bank, including the release of monetary policy。  In addition to the Fed rate hike expectations clear, analysts say, but cautious tightening bias will be basic tendencies global central banks this week。In the case of the European Central Bank may remain unchanged, and a further announcement on how to reduce the amount of purchased debt, while the Bank of England may raise interest rates next few years promise in the removal of uncertainty in Europe。  Despite the uncertainty of short-term, but as the world economy since the beginning of 2011 the strongest period, Wall Street economists expect 2018 will be greeted by investors for nearly 10 years, the largest central bank to tighten monetary policy。The largest increase Citibank and JP Morgan expects the 2018 average interest rates in developed economies will be up to more than 1%, the highest since mid-2006。  Global interest rates are not the only or preferred way to crunch。Deutsche Bank's chief China economist Zhang Zhiwei that in the past year, the global economic environment favorable, Japan and Europe to enhance economic growth, stable financial markets。European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to reduce asset purchases, the Fed reduced tables, etc., at least reflects the peak of this round of global quantitative easing cycle is over。  Central banks policies vary Fed rate hike this week has been basically a virtual certainty, but the European Central Bank and the Bank of England is still not tight difficulties。  Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) for the Federal Reserve federal funds rate futures monitoring shows that investors expect the probability of the Fed meeting to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 90.2% probability of rate hike by 50 basis points has reached 9.8%, while the expected probability of anything 0。  Almost all the major Wall Street institutions expect the Fed to raise interest rates, most of which is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, the same as the magnitude of the previous times。  The latest US non-farm employment data released on Friday showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in November 22.80000, than previously expected 200,000, the unemployment rate 4.1% with expectations, but poor salary growth。  Bank of Montreal (BMO) IanLyngen said that although the November non-farm payroll data in less than expected, no effect on expectations the Federal Reserve next week, but there is no evidence that the data will influence the Fed to raise interest rates sharply route 2018。  The current market interest rate path in 2018 is still uncertain, Morgan Stanley and other big firms believe that 2018 will raise interest rates three times, and Deutsche Bank that the Fed tightening will reach four times。  Bloomberg Analysts said investors may have underestimated the pace of future Fed rate hikes。Some investors expect the Fed will raise interest rates twice before the end of 2018。But Fed "bitmap" point of view, policy makers may plan to achieve four times the rate hike before the end of next year。  Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is widely expected this week will not bring any fresh initiatives, the bank had launched a modest reduction in quantitative easing policy, announced plans to cut monthly purchase debt from 60 billion to 30 billion euros, and from 2018 in January continuation of nine months, this means that ultra-loose monetary policy of the euro era is ending, but the long-term hovering in the low inflation rate is still unsolved problems。  Due to increasing inflationary pressures, the Bank of England in November after the meeting on interest rates hiked interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%, while maintaining the scale of asset purchases unchanged。However, "off Europe" to negotiate future is full of uncertainty, the market expects the Bank of England's tightening measures might stall。In addition, the Swiss central bank policy decisions will be announced in the same week, it is widely expected that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged。Analysts pointed out that the Swiss central bank reiterated that policy might occasionally intervene in currency so that the exchange rate remained at low levels。  2018 is expected to be tight in the regions other than the United States although there is still uncertainty in the short-term monetary policy, but the world's major economies will enter a tightening cycle in 2018 is the consensus of economists。  Goldman Sachs expects the central bank to raise interest rates next year may be more than the Fed。The United States has more than full employment, the UK has reached a critical point of full employment, and (labor) slack in the euro area are narrow; the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Sweden and New Zealand's central bank the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next year to control inflation。  Citibank estimated average interest rate in developed countries next year will be the highest since 2008, rising 0.4 percentage points to 1%。While JP Morgan forecast the average interest rates from the end of the year 0.1 rose to 68%.2%, more than 0 hike.5 points。Citigroup expects the Fed and the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates three times next year, the Bank of England, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden and Norway to raise interest rates again。  Such a tightening in fact has continued for some time。In addition to the Bank of England to raise interest rates in November, the European Central Bank announced reduction in the scale of debt purchased, the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates twice unexpectedly in July and September this year, raised its benchmark interest rate of 1%。  The November 30, South Korea's central bank hiked interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%, for the first time in more than six years to raise interest rates, but also since 2015 Fed rate hike cycle turned, the first follow-up of major Asian economies。  Citibank director of global economic research EbrahimRahbari said, "2018 is what we really tighten monetary policy year。We will continue the current path, the financial market is also a good deal of monetary policy, but in late 2018 or 2019, monetary policy will be one of the factors complicating the market。"The Fed rate hike is expected to strongly non-US central banks ambiguous attitude" look now global financial institutions are focused on the December interest rate policy meeting of the Fed's December 14。"A US hedge fund manager, told reporters in the 21st Century Business Herald。He said, in fact, their real concern is not whether the Fed to raise interest rates in December (as it had been "iron nails"), but by the next new release of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates bitmap with the US economic outlook, the Fed determine the real increase for next year number of coupon payments。  With Trump tax reform policy to boost US economic growth is expected to fall, more and more financial institutions began to predict next year the Fed may raise interest rates four times higher than previous market expectations of 3。  JP Morgan Asset Global fixed income, currencies and commodities to the person in charge BobMichele Business Herald reporter pointed out that in the 21st century, due to the Trump tax reform policies to stimulate the US business investment, household consumption and other needs, the US economy showing faster growth and higher trend inflationary pressures, the Fed had to consider speeding up the pace of rate hikes, will raise interest rates next year the number rose to 4 times。As a result, the dollar's yield advantage further expansion, and thus stimulate other countries suffered a new round of capital outflow pressure。  "After all, non-US central banks to tighten monetary policy on whether to follow up seemed hesitant, such as Germany restricted cabinet failure, it is difficult to apply more pressure to tighten monetary policy to the European Central Bank; European off negotiations twists and turns, so that the Bank of England He continued to raise interest rates legislator; many emerging market countries are reluctant to further tighten monetary policy led economic recovery has slowed down, leading to global monetary policy next year will once again differentiate。"BMO Investment Management analyst SalGuatieri macroeconomic analysis, told reporters。  Many in the financial industry view, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to speed up the pace of hawks can trigger a new round of global capital flows large, there are still many variables。On the one hand the US bond yields and not with the pace of rate hikes and increased, but signs of decline, leading to a weaker US dollar assets less attractive; on the other hand continues to set new record high in US stocks triggered growing concerns about asset bubbles, so that overseas funds lingering fear。  Next year the Fed to raise interest rates four times "controversy" after landing Trump tax reform policy, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates four times next year heats up。  In BobMichele view, the reason why many financial institutions bet the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates four times next year, there are three main reasons, first, the tax reform policy to reduce the US corporate tax burden with the residents, they stimulate the expansion of investment and consumption, driving up US future inflation expectations; Second, tax reform policy will attract many overseas investment capital back into the United States, is expected to boost economic growth; third is tax reform policy for the development of SMEs constitute the essence of good tax cuts, thereby further stimulating employment rate increase, The Fed had driven corresponding accelerate the pace of rate hikes。  He does not deny that these institutions more radical point of view, after all, next year the Fed to raise interest rates four times, two prerequisites must be met, one US short-term low inflation and a fundamental condition to reverse, and second, the US economy next year and to rid itself of recession sustained high growth。  "Most of the big Wall Street hedge fund cautious about。"He admits。On the one hand the United States and low inflation situation is causing more and more worried that the Fed officials, even within the Fed now appears "wait until inflation reaches 2% target, then consider raising interest rates," the voice; on the other hand the United States short and long term bond yields tends planarization (upside down may occur next year), between the invisible increase the risk of a US recession, the Fed may not dare to take such a radical pace of rate hikes。  Merrill Lynch, head of asset securitization ChrisFlanagan in the latest report pointed out that since the end of October this year, the US 2-year and 10-year yield spread fell to 50 basis points from 80 basis points。Although this new evidence will not hinder the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further to avoid future inflation situation。But the result is that once the short and long term bond yield curve inversion phenomenon occurs in the next year, the US economy earliest possible recession in 2020。  December 6, JP Morgan released the latest report said that given the US economy long-term steady growth, in September next year before the Fed will continue gradual pace of rate hikes that each rate hike before the first three quarters of next year to raise interest rates a total of three times; 2019 hike interest rates twice in 2020 once。The reason is that the United States still prefer short-term economic prospects, but taking into account long-term sustained economic growth momentum "inadequate", the Fed will need to weigh future inflation situation, and then decide whether to speed up the pace of rate hikes。  "In fact, most Fed members expected end of next year to raise interest rates to 2.215% (ie, after the December rate hike this year, next year to raise interest rates three times), which also includes new incoming Fed chairman Powell。"JP Morgan analyst pointed out。  SalGuatieri believes that unless the US state of low inflation sharply reversed in the short term, the majority of Wall Street financial institutions will still bet on the Fed to raise interest rates three times next year。The reason for this is in line with the usual steady pace of interest rate plus the Fed – only to see the employment rate, economic growth and other key data clearly improves, the Fed will raise interest rates pulled the trigger。  Non-US central banks ambiguous attitude in his view, because the Fed's recent rate hike a foregone conclusion hawks, greater impact of global variables in moving from non-US central banks are willing to follow to speed up the pace of monetary policy tightening。  It is worth noting that 13 countries will be held in the central bank's last monetary policy meeting of the year this week – in addition to the Fed rate hike had been "iron nails", the rest of this ambiguous attitude。  Many financial Insiders pointed out that the European Central Bank explicitly in January next year?September continued monthly QE 300 billion euros of debt purchase plan, combined with the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi promised not to terminate QE immediately after September next year, and at a complete stop before QE is likely to raise interest rates。Therefore, the ECB may not be in the December monetary policy meeting statement hurry to tighten monetary policy, so that between the invisible bets the European Central Bank to tighten monetary policy to speed up cash in euro assets worldwide spread income arbitrage funds disappointment。  Given the recent off-European negotiations twists and turns, coupled with the recent inflation data showed signs of a slowdown, the Bank of England will show more "hawkish bias attitude" in wording, the actual behavior is greatly reduced。  Prior to the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates at the same time, we have made it clear to continue easing monetary policy to support export growth。  "Therefore, whether the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times or four times next year, as long as non-US central banks to suspend the pace of tightening monetary policy, the dollar's yield advantage to expand next year will become a high probability event。"SalGuatieri noted。  However, the dollar's yield advantage to widen again, not necessarily return to the US and global capital investment plans on "equal sign"。The reason is, first, Treasury yields have not increased with the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates – the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice this year, but the 10-year bond yields fell 15 basis points instead, resulting in lower attractiveness of dollar assets actual return。As long as emerging markets currencies are not depreciated sharply, many prefer to stay in the local global capital to earn higher rates of return; Second, tax reform policy has led to further increase the US budget deficit, it may affect the prospects for economic growth in the United States, many global institutions that will fund its return to the US "risks", it is better to stay in the other country's economic growth more robust fundamentals get all the risk-free return。  A large US investment bank, told reporters that the current tax reform policy Trump superimposed Fed hawks to raise interest rates, the impact on global capital flows cause is not yet clear。Trump tax reform policy since landing, where he daily by global investment bank reflux US capital investment is probably around $ 20-30 billion in investment flows primarily in US stocks, US stocks rose and linked to financial derivatives, etc.。  In his view, mainly due to tax reform policies have made the United States Trump telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods and other industries listed companies to benefit, in addition to specific provisions to be tax reform policy adjustment will help to enhance the valuation of technology stocks, in order to attract many global flow of capital investment in the United States to carry out short-term arbitrage。Therefore, this trend can be sustained flow of capital, there are also many variables。  "So on Thursday the Fed's monetary policy meeting on the future of the US economy's outlook, as well as coping strategies for stocks and other asset bubbles, to some extent determines the enthusiasm and earnings prospects of global capital return to the US。"SalGuatieri respect to the 21st Century Business Herald Correspondent。If the Fed's concerns about asset bubbles warming, even though its release and then a strong voice hawks hike, not much would like braving the global capital investment and risk taking of dollar assets spread income, this big global capital flows will quickly dissipate the invisible。  Internal and external factors superimposed central bank funds face pressure under the care of a smooth since New Year's Eve or New Year's Eve without fear flat surface into the capital in mid-December, short-term market funds face the emergence of some "disturbance", mainly due to the recent reverse repo, MLF and the industry certificates of deposit of the amount due the market are larger, and the assessment period coincides with the end of MPA。However, the central bank has begun to increase efforts to put the money, with no fear or smooth New Year's Eve。  From the point of view of funds due this month will usher in reverse repo and certificates of deposit maturity focus。According to Reporters statistics, a total of 1 open market this month.52 trillion reverse repurchase funds expire, and December 16 there will be 187 billion MLF (medium-term loan facilitation) expires, the industry will also be a large number of certificates of deposit maturity, the amount due to 2.2 trillion, were recorded during the year higher。  End funds face pressure, the central bank injected a net re-open mode。  December 12, the central bank carried out 150 billion yuan reverse repurchase in the open market, in which 7-day varieties 80 billion, 70 billion of 28-day varieties。110 billion of funds minus the maturing reverse repo, the same day the central bank injected a net 40 billion to the market。This is the second consecutive day the central bank net invested capital to the market this week the central bank injected a net 200 billion into the market。Many market participants for the 21st century Business Herald reporter said he expects the central bank will increase for some time to-market funds。  A time when tax on financial institutions and mid-end assessment, and overlay overseas soon the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates, the current financial market into the "troubled times", facing liquidity multiple internal and external disturbances。According to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter from banks and other institutions at the understanding of the day, despite the central bank injected a net continues, but the market funds face still showing signs of tightening, money market benchmark interest rate up overall。  However, the central bank to restart the 28-day reverse repurchase show the care of the end of the financial side of intent, and the impact of the Fed's rate hike has long been fully absorbed by the market。On the other hand, the banking and finance market sources, this year the funds have been well prepared for New Year's Eve。Reporters interviewed a number of analysts believe that, despite the overseas factors obviously disturbed, but there is no need to follow the central bank to raise domestic interest rates。  Centralized fund maturity tight liquidity since the end of November to December, due to the efforts to increase fiscal spending, hedge funds reverse repurchase factors due to some extent。The central bank on monetary policy also highlights the characteristics of "camera operation", last week (December 4 – 8 days) in five trading days, the central bank did not have four days to carry out open market operations。Last week, the whole week the central bank net capital return 510 billion, the highest amount of central bank net return of a single week in nearly 10 months。  Even so, the total amount of liquidity in the market is still at a high level, the overall easing。However, by the end of this week, the financial side of disturbance factors began to have an impact, but also showed signs of tightening liquidity。On Tuesday, the money market interest rates generally upward, in addition to individual species, inter-bank collateral repo rate and the Shibor (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate) hikes, which, inter 14D, 21D and 1M of the bank collateral repo weighted average interest rate respectively, compared with the previous day up 16bp, 29bp and 16bp; 1MShibor overnight and 3 respectively upstream.8BP and 3.24BP。"New Year's Eve is now difficult to borrow money, there is little institutional funds out of New Year's Eve。"A banking source told reporters in the 21st Century Business Herald。  In addition, the issuance of certificates of deposit, interbank interest rates, the current 6M small and medium banks interbank certificate of deposit interest rates basically at more than 5%, has risen to a higher level earlier in June, "now feel the bank is still very short of money, although 11 March credit data is good, but that is the table, the deposit can not bring in external rotation table, bank certificates of deposit and now continued high cost。"One City firm of financial markets department official told reporters in the 21st Century Business Herald。  Specifically, on the one hand near the end of the year, and the tax on financial institutions will enter Friday; on the other hand, the Fed will announce interest rate decision last year in three weeks, regardless of the current Fed Chairman Xi Yelun or designate of the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell are optimistic about the US economy, he hinted that it would raise interest rates。At the same time, Trump's tax cut bill has been passed by the Senate, the final version is still under discussion。These internal and external factors are closely watched domestic financial markets。  From the point of view of funds due this month will usher in reverse repo and certificates of deposit maturity focus。According to Reporters statistics, a total of 1 open market this month.52 trillion reverse repurchase funds expire, and December 16 there will be 187 billion MLF (medium-term loan facilitation) expires, the industry will also be a large number of certificates of deposit maturity, the amount due to 2.2 trillion, were recorded during the year higher。  New Year's Eve or no fear, however, for New Year's Eve funds may not need extra worry。  "Our New Year's Eve bank capital has long been ready, tax positions are also ready, if financial resources go low, there may be some surplus funds can be a。New Year's Eve is now a little money indeed, but banks should be left in the final position, until no access to the back and then out。"A bank financial marketing sources。  According to the reporter, many banks as early as November has already begun in preparation for New Year's Eve funds。In fact, it is this year since the implementation of MPA (macro-prudential assessment) evaluation system, showing the flow of a different characteristic than in the past, that is, every time a node assessment across the quarter, the bank set aside more time than ever ready money, reflected in the fluctuations in the financial side, the financial side cross season is early may will be tightened, and the end of the month but more relaxed。  Another banking source told reporters that this year is a bumper year of strong regulation, the mood is very cautious on the market, in fact, money is not imagined so nervous。  The central bank's operations attitude is also very clear, the continuation of "load shifting" idea。December 7, the central bank in the open market to carry out a one hundred billion of 28-day reverse repo operations, which since October 26 this year to re-launch 28 days reverse repo funding period, the period covered by this New Year's Eve, showing that the central bank liquidity care attitude。  It is worth noting that last week the central bank sequel MLF, only hedge the amount due that day, and not like before one-time hedge。In this regard, some market participants interpreted as a "hold back", i.e., to be observed Fed tightening the boot floor reaction market then operated accordingly。However, a number of organizations who receive financial reports Reporters interviewed expressed the 21st century, more likely to be taken into account that the market is awash in liquidity, and after January 1 New Year's Eve will usher directed RRR execution。  For the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and tax cuts Trump possible effects, blue stone, director of research and information management Zhao Bowen told reporters that this year, the central bank for RMB liquidity and capital management very well, it seems, does not need to use price tools, raising interest rates。  Tianfeng Securities chief fixed income analyst at Sun Binbin team believes that the intent of the policy and the market trend, the key policy rate adjustments are not present or not, the current market interest rates much higher than the interest rate policy, on the one hand that the market interest rates for a number of operations more sensitive to central bank policy is not to force the point that the policy rate and regulatory, pain points, the market is also characterized by higher market interest rate certificates of deposit represented the industry rather than to policy rate too high。  Opinions in the market related news agency (original title: the world usher in the end of the central bank's interest-rate or weeks in 2018 entered the tightening cycle) (Editor: DF318)